ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGE TREND OF URBAN UNEMPLOYED POPULATION IN CHINA: 1995—2020

(INDIRECT ESTIMATES BASED ON CENSUS AND SAMPLE SURVEY DATA)

Authors

  • Ge Yanxia National Institute of Social Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Keywords:

surveyed unemployment rate, unemployed population, high-risk unemployed groups, unemployment governance

Abstract

Introduction. According to the census and sample survey data
over the years, this paper adopts the International Labor Organization
assessment criteria for unemployment. Taking into account the growth of
the urban population, aging structure, and changes in labor participation
pattern and employment pattern, this paper considers the unemployed
population in Chinese cities and towns from 1995 to 2010 via historical
reconstruction. It predicts the unemployed population in towns and cities
from 2011 to 2020. The results show that the scale of the urban unemployed
population and unemployment rate in China went through a process of ups
and downs from 1995 to 2005, and remained stable at a low level from 2005
to 2010, with little change in the next ten years. But the internal age structure of the unemployed varies by a significant margin. With the aging of the
urban population structure and the increasing age-specific unemployment
rate of the 45—60-year-old population, the middle-aged population unemployment problem will gradually increase, and the middle-aged population
will be the most severe group in the next ten years.
Objective. Taking into account the growth of the urban population, aging age structure, and changes in labor participation patterns and
employment patterns, this paper considers the unemployed population in
Chinese cities and towns from 1995 to 2010 via historical reconstruction. It
predicts the unemployed population in towns and cities from 2011 to 2020.
Article Classification. Research paper.
Practical application. The results show that the scale of the urban unemployed population and unemployment rate in China went
through a process of ebbs and flows from 1995 to 2005, and remained stable
at a low level from 2005 to 2010, with little change in the next ten years.
But the internal age structure of the unemployed varies to a significant
margin.
Findings. With the aging of the urban population structure and
the increasing age-specific unemployment rate of the 45-60-year-old population, the middle-aged population unemployment problem will gradually
increase and the middle-aged population will be the most severe group in
the next ten years.

Author Biography

Ge Yanxia, National Institute of Social Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Ph.D., Postdoctor in Sociology, Associate professor,
National Institute of Social Development,
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,
People’s Republic of China

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Published

2022-04-03

How to Cite

Yanxia, G. (2022). ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGE TREND OF URBAN UNEMPLOYED POPULATION IN CHINA: 1995—2020: (INDIRECT ESTIMATES BASED ON CENSUS AND SAMPLE SURVEY DATA). Ukrainian Journal of Sinology Studies, 3(1), 18–29. Retrieved from https://sinology-studies.com/index.php/ujss/article/view/20